My Stock Portfolio Review, January 2025
Portfolio Performance Overview and Key Stock Highlights
Hello, Investor,
Each month, I provide a transparent update on my portfolio performance, covering the latest news on core stock positions and analyzing recent developments across each holding.
For more frequent updates, follow me on X/Twitter and Threads, for visual infographics on Instagram and on SavvyTrader for portfolio changes.
Portfolio Review
Holdings:
Monthly Allocations:
* green (added), orange (trimmed)
Performance (TWR):
Historical performance (TWR):
2020: +110.2%(since 15.04.2020)
2021: +23.7%
2022: -59.6%
2023: +57.3%
2024: +24.9%
Cumulative: +129.5%
A recap of my Portfolio in 2025
January:
⬇️ Trim TSLA
⬆️Add DDOG TTD SHOP MNDY GTLB
Key reasons for changes in my investment portfolio:
Tesla's quarterly report was quite weak. Lower ASPs and incentives will continue to impact margins, while gross margin declined across all segments. Tesla’s current valuation already factors in significant growth, rapid FSD adoption, and a fast Optimus ramp-up, meaning much of the optimism is already priced in. After the stock price increase following the earnings report, I decided to reduce my position and reallocate to software companies that reported strong Q3 results but whose stock prices have underperformed over the past month.
Commentary on my holdings:
Crowdstrike CRWD
FedRAMP Authorization for Key Modules
CrowdStrike Falcon cybersecurity platform achieved FedRAMP Moderate authorization for three modules: Next-Gen SIEM, IT, and Data Protection. These modules are now available in GovCloud, enabling federal, state, and local government entities to secure their assets against sophisticated cyber threats while enhancing operational efficiency.
Support for Federal Security Mandates: CrowdStrike’s solutions align with federal mandates, including OMB M-21-31 and Zero Trust frameworks, by providing real-time threat detection, centralized log management, and asset visibility. The platform helps government agencies secure hybrid environments, streamline operations, and reduce costs.
Advanced Threat Detection for Government Networks: CrowdStrike addresses complex security needs within distributed government networks, combating risks posed by advanced adversaries like LIMINAL PANDA. The platform offers proactive threat detection and critical telemetry to stop multi-faceted intrusions.
Comprehensive Visibility and Zero Trust Adoption: The newly authorized modules provide government entities and their supply chains with enhanced intelligence, real-time responses, and comprehensive visibility across endpoints, identities, and cloud environments. This supports Zero Trust adoption and compliance with stringent security requirements.
CrowdStrike Launches Insider Risk Services
CrowdStrike has introduced Insider Risk Services to address insider threats from negligent employees, malicious insiders, and sophisticated adversaries. The solution focuses on proactively identifying vulnerabilities, strengthening defenses, and mitigating risks before escalation.
Rising Costs: Insider threats cost organizations an average of $16.2 million annually.
Threat Evolution: Adversaries, such as the DPRK-nexus group FAMOUS CHOLLIMA, exploit vulnerabilities by posing as legitimate employees.
Insider Risk Service Offerings:
Insider Risk Reviews: Identify security gaps and enhance defenses using CrowdStrike’s intelligence and 24/7 threat hunting capabilities.
Tabletop Exercises: Simulate real-world insider threat scenarios to test defenses and improve detection capabilities.
Incident Response: Quickly contain and mitigate risks with expert-led services powered by the Falcon platform and advanced threat intelligence.
CrowdStrike Achieves 100% Protection in SE Labs 2024 Ransomware Test
CrowdStrike Falcon cybersecurity platform demonstrated 100% detection, 100% protection, and 100% accuracy in the 2024 SE Labs Enterprise Advanced Security (EDR) Ransomware Test, earning the AAA Award for the third consecutive year. The test, which simulated real-world attacks from 15 ransomware families, used 443 ransomware samples, including zero-day variants.
Key Highlights:
✔ Unified Security Across Attack Lifecycle – Detects and stops threats at every stage, preventing lateral movement and credential misuse.
✔ AI-Driven Detection – Uses behavioral AI and machine learning to identify threats before execution, achieving zero false positives.
✔ Cloud-Native Architecture – Delivers real-time analysis and rapid threat containment without straining resources.
SE Labs praised Falcon’s exceptional performance, confirming its ability to stop all ransomware threats with unmatched speed and precision.
Tesla TSLA
The company reported its fourth quarter of 2024 results.
Thoughts on Tesla Earnings Report TSLA:
🟢 Positive
Q4 2024 free cash flow reached $2 billion, with full-year free cash flow at $3.6 billion, despite a $2.4 billion CapEx increase.
Model Y became the world’s best-selling vehicle in 2024, with deliveries nearing 2 million annually.
Energy storage deployments hit record levels, with 50% YoY growth expected in 2025.
Unsupervised FSD launches in Austin by June 2025, with nationwide expansion targeted for 2026.
Tesla’s safety data shows FSD reduces crash rates by 8.5x compared to manual driving.
Shanghai MegaFactory operational, and third energy factory in development to meet high demand.
Tesla Semi production begins in late 2025, positioning it as a cost-efficient alternative to diesel trucks.
Optimus production starts in 2025 with 10,000 units, scaling to 100,000 units per month long term.
2025 CapEx remains flat, despite continued investments in AI, robotics, and manufacturing.
🟡 Neutral
Redesigned Model Y launches in Q1 2025, upgrading all factories simultaneously. Short-term disruptions expected, but long-term margin gains anticipated.
New affordable model set for H1 2025, but pricing and production details remain undisclosed.
FSD licensing discussions ongoing, but only high-volume partnerships will be considered.
Cybertruck ramping up, but delivery numbers remain undisclosed.
🔴 Negative
Lower ASPs and incentives impacted margins, leading to a quarter-over-quarter decline in profitability.
Battery production constraints limiting 2025 growth, affecting both vehicles and energy storage.
Regulatory hurdles delaying FSD expansion in Europe and China.
Some customers will require FSD hardware upgrades, increasing costs.
Market Reaction to Earnings Release: The stock price surged by 5% following the earnings release.
In my view, the earnings report was mixed. I was surprised by the stock price increase after the report, as the positives were mostly long-term, while the negatives were more immediate. Lower ASPs and incentives impacted margins, gross margin declined across all segments, and the company missed guidance despite already known vehicle sales figures.
On the positive side, the Energy Storage segment showed strong growth, and the updated Model Y was introduced. However, Tesla’s current valuation already factors in significant growth, rapid FSD adoption, and a fast Optimus ramp-up, meaning much of the optimism is already priced in.
The Trade Desk TTD
The Trade Desk announced an agreement to acquire Sincera, a digital advertising data company that provides actionable insights to the advertising ecosystem.
Strategic Benefits:
Enhanced Data Quality: Sincera helps advertisers accurately value ad impressions by evaluating data quality from publishers and content providers.
Programmatic Advertising: The integration of Sincera’s tools will enhance The Trade Desk’s platform, improving transparency and data signals for advertisers and publishers.
Expanding Ecosystem: With the growth of channels like streaming TV, digital audio, and retail media, Sincera’s insights will optimize campaign investments across the open internet.
ServiceNow NOW
The company reported its third quarter of 2024 results.
Thoughts on ServiceNow Earnings Report NOW:
🟢 Pros:
Revenue growth stabilized at 21.3% YoY.
Renewal rate remains strong at 98%.
CAC payback period is healthy at 19 months, in line with the SaaS industry average.
AI growth: Pro Plus AI deals up +150% QoQ; over 1,000 customers using AgenTic AI.
Raptor DB adoption: Five customers with $1M+ ACV within months; 3.5x faster response times.
Stock buyback expanded by $3B, totaling $4.5B in authorized repurchases.
Expanded partnerships with AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft, Visa, and Five9.
🔴 Cons:
Management provided weak guidance for the next quarter and full year, missing analysts' expectations. Q4 guidance projects 18.4% YoY revenue growth, a decline justified by Federal IT spending delays due to the U.S. election cycle.
Missed its own Q4 forecast by 0.4%.
🟡 Neutral:
RPO growth slowed to +23.9% YoY, but remains faster than revenue; cRPO growth dropped to +19.4% YoY, now lower than revenue growth.
Gross margin declined to 81.94%.
2025 subscription gross margin expected at 83.5%, slightly lower due to AI and data center investments.
The addition of new $1M+ ACV customers was lower than last year: +89 vs. +108 in the previous year.
Diluted shares count rose by 1.3% YoY.
SBC/rev at 15%.
Market Reaction to Earnings Release: The stock price declined by -8% following the earnings release.
ServiceNow's quarterly report was fairly weak, with the company missing its own guidance and providing a soft outlook for the next quarter. Management attributed this decline to Federal IT spending delays due to the U.S. election cycle. The addition of new customers came in slightly below last year’s level.
For now, I plan to wait and hold my position, closely monitoring the next earnings report for customer growth and expecting management to raise full-year 2025 guidance.
On a positive note, management reported Pro Plus AI deals up +150% QoQ, which is an excellent result.
ServiceNow's valuation was already high, and expectations were likely elevated, which led to a sharp decline in the stock price following the report. By the end of the trading day, NOW was down -11.4%.
Zscaler ZS
Zscaler Integrates Zero Trust Access with RISE with SAP
Zscaler, a leader in cloud security, has natively integrated its Zero Trust Network Access (ZTNA) solution, Zscaler Private Access (ZPA), into RISE with SAP to enhance secure cloud migration for enterprises running on-prem ERP workloads.
Key Highlights:
✔ Eliminates VPNs & Firewalls – Provides secure, direct access to SAP applications without traditional security risks.
✔ Stronger Cloud Security – Reduces attack surfaces, addressing VPN vulnerabilities, which have been exploited in 56% of recent cyberattacks (Zscaler 2024 VPN Risk Report).
✔ Seamless Zero Trust Integration – Offers native Zero Trust protection for multi-cloud and hybrid SAP environments.
✔ Optimized Access & Compliance – Enhances security, performance, and compliance for users, business partners, and remote workforces.
✔ Backed by Global Enterprises – Companies like Volkswagen, Siemens, Deutsche Börse, Accenture, and Deloitte are adopting ZPA to securely modernize SAP applications in the cloud.
This strategic partnership between Zscaler and SAP enables organizations to accelerate digital transformation while strengthening cloud security.
Samsara IOT
Samsara Partners with Stellantis for Telematics Integration: Samsara has announced a partnership with Mobilisights, Stellantis' Data as a Service division, to provide hardware-free access to telematics data for Stellantis vehicles across Europe.
Integration Scope: The collaboration covers vehicles manufactured after 2024 and select models from 2018 to 2024, spanning brands such as Alfa Romeo, Citroën, Jeep, Peugeot, and others. Both electric vehicles (EVs) and commercial fleets are included in the integration.
Fleet Management Benefits: Fleet operators can connect vehicles to Samsara’s Connected Operations Cloud using a Vehicle Identification Number (VIN), eliminating the need for additional hardware. Key data such as GPS location, mileage, and fuel levels will be available remotely, enabling faster onboarding and tamper-proof access to real-time insights.
Industry Impact: As the second-largest automotive manufacturer in Europe, Stellantis accounts for 17% of vehicle sales in the region. This partnership enhances fleet management by simplifying operations and delivering actionable insights.
Strategic Value: This collaboration strengthens Samsara’s position in connected operations while expanding its network of global OEM integrations. It aligns with Samsara’s mission to empower businesses with real-time, data-driven decision-making and drive operational efficiency across Europe.
Mongodb MDB
MongoDB has been named a Leader in the 2024 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Cloud Database Management Systems for the third consecutive year. This highlights MongoDB's innovation, execution, and customer focus in the cloud DBMS market, particularly as the industry evolves with generative AI and integrated data management solutions. Key 2024 Highlights:
MongoDB 8.0 Release: Delivers over 30% faster performance, improved security, and cost-efficient horizontal scaling.
MAAP Expansion: Provides a complete AI stack and professional services to help enterprises innovate and future-proof AI investments.
AI Safety Consortium: MongoDB became a founding member to promote safe and trustworthy AI under the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Product Innovation: Hundreds of features and enhancements launched to simplify application development and optimize costs.
Industry Accolades: Recognized as the most loved vector database in Retool’s State of AI report for the second year.
Thank you for reading!
Follow me for frequent updates on key news on X/Twitter and Threads @SergeyCYW and for visual infographics on Instagram.
For portfolio changes, follow me on SavvyTrader, where you'll find: current portfolio holdings, portfolio performance, trade alerts, and trade history.
Past recaps:
December 2024
November 2024
October 2024
September 2024
August 2024
July 2024
June 2024
May 2024
April 2024
March 2024
Disclaimer: This portfolio summary is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Opinions are my own; please conduct your own due diligence.